SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Jan 01 2021 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong gusts and a tornado or two remain possible from across parts of South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Discussion... Aside from minor adjustments to the western fringe of the outlook areas, the more substantial change at this time will be to add a small SLGT risk/5% tornado area over a small portion of central and eastern Georgia. Though instability remains quite modest, as evidenced by the lack of lightning with the ongoing convection, ample low-level veering with height -- beneath moderate mid-level southwesterlies -- is providing shear sufficient to support a few organized/rotating updrafts. A small tornado appears to be ongoing over eastern Monroe County Georgia at this time, southeast of Atlanta, and with an additional storm or two possibly becoming capable of brief tornado production, the upgrade to slight risk for this afternoon and early evening appears warranted. ..Goss.. 01/01/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021/ ...SE States... A vigorous upper low is tracking northeastward toward the mid MS Valley today, with an 80+ knot southwesterly mid level jet max nosing into the central Appalachians. The trailing cold front from this system extends across middle TN and AL, with a pre-frontal line of thunderstorms moving into GA. These storms are expected to persist this afternoon and spread eastward across the MRGL risk area, with transient bowing structures posing some risk of gusty winds or a brief tornado. However, the glancing influence of the upper system and weak CAPE suggest that the overall risk of organized severe storms is marginal. Other storms may develop this afternoon in vicinity of the wedge front currently extending from central GA into SC. This boundary will lift slightly northward through the day. Substantial cloud cover and weak CAPE will limit severe risk in this area as well, but if a storm can become rooted along the boundary it could produce locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado.
There’s more click here.