SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong gusts and a tornado or two remain possible from
across parts of South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor adjustments to the western fringe of the outlook
areas, the more substantial change at this time will be to add a
small SLGT risk/5% tornado area over a small portion of central and
eastern Georgia.  Though instability remains quite modest, as
evidenced by the lack of lightning with the ongoing convection,
ample low-level veering with height -- beneath moderate mid-level
southwesterlies -- is providing shear sufficient to support a few
organized/rotating updrafts.

A small tornado appears to be ongoing over eastern Monroe County
Georgia at this time, southeast of Atlanta, and with an additional
storm or two possibly becoming capable of brief tornado production,
the upgrade to slight risk for this afternoon and early evening
appears warranted.

..Goss.. 01/01/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021/

...SE States...
A vigorous upper low is tracking northeastward toward the mid MS
Valley today, with an 80+ knot southwesterly mid level jet max
nosing into the central Appalachians.  The trailing cold front from
this system extends across middle TN and AL, with a pre-frontal line
of thunderstorms moving into GA.  These storms are expected to
persist this afternoon and spread eastward across the MRGL risk
area, with transient bowing structures posing some risk of gusty
winds or a brief tornado.  However, the glancing influence of the
upper system and weak CAPE suggest that the overall risk of
organized severe storms is marginal.

Other storms may develop this afternoon in vicinity of the wedge
front currently extending from central GA into SC.  This boundary
will lift slightly northward through the day.  Substantial cloud
cover and weak CAPE will limit severe risk in this area as well, but
if a storm can become rooted along the boundary it could produce
locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado.

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