Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Various models such as the ECMWF and GFS are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the period, depicting little chance of thunderstorms on Monday/D4 and Tuesday/D5 as an upper trough departs the East with high pressure at the surface. By Wednesday/D6, an amplified upper trough is forecast to progress across the Plains, with height falls strongest over the central and southern Plains. By this time, the antecedent surface ridge will have moved to the East Coast, with southerly surface winds bringing mid 50s F dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex. Even so, forecast MUCAPE is only on the order of a few hundred J/kg, and the instability plume is to be quite narrow, resulting in low predictability. This trough is expected evolve into a cut-off low on Thursday/D7 over the OH/TN Valleys, with strong westerly winds aloft across the Southeast. It appears moisture quality will be a concern across this region, thus predictability remains low despite strong shear. By Friday/D8, any remaining moisture and instability over the Southeast is forecast to be shunted offshore as the pattern remains progressive.
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