Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Various models such as the ECMWF and GFS are in relatively good
agreement with the large-scale pattern through the period, depicting
little chance of thunderstorms on Monday/D4 and Tuesday/D5 as an
upper trough departs the East with high pressure at the surface.

By Wednesday/D6, an amplified upper trough is forecast to progress
across the Plains, with height falls strongest over the central and
southern Plains. By this time, the antecedent surface ridge will
have moved to the East Coast, with southerly surface winds bringing
mid 50s F dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex. Even so, forecast
MUCAPE is only on the order of a few hundred J/kg, and the
instability plume is to be quite narrow, resulting in low
predictability.

This trough is expected evolve into a cut-off low on Thursday/D7
over the OH/TN Valleys, with strong westerly winds aloft across the
Southeast. It appears moisture quality will be a concern across this
region, thus predictability remains low despite strong shear.

By Friday/D8, any remaining moisture and instability over the
Southeast is forecast to be shunted offshore as the pattern remains
progressive.

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