SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible from the
eastern Florida Panhandle into southeast Georgia late this afternoon
into the evening.

...Northern Florida through southeast Georgia...

A front will stall from the NC coastal area southward through the
eastern or central FL Panhandle. A weak surface low is forecast to
develop along this boundary near the FL Panhandle by early evening
in response to glancing influence of forcing for ascent associated
an upper jet rotating northeastward through the Southeast States.
This weak low will subsequently develop northeast along this front
during the overnight, reaching the NC coast by 12Z Sunday. A moist
warm sector with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place in
this region, but instability will remain very marginal with MLCAPE
from 200-300 J/kg due to poor lapse rates, widespread clouds and
areas of showers. These showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing from the coastal SC through the central FL
panhandle. This activity will increase in coverage and intensity
toward evening as the southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across
the eastern FL Panhandle into southeast GA. Low-level hodographs and
effective bulk shear will become more than sufficient for organized
storms. A strong wind gust or two and perhaps a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. However, the severe threat is expected to remain
limited by the very marginal thermodynamic environment.

..Dial/Squiteiri.. 01/02/2021

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