SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle into southeast Georgia late this afternoon into the evening. ...Northern Florida through southeast Georgia... A front will stall from the NC coastal area southward through the eastern or central FL Panhandle. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this boundary near the FL Panhandle by early evening in response to glancing influence of forcing for ascent associated an upper jet rotating northeastward through the Southeast States. This weak low will subsequently develop northeast along this front during the overnight, reaching the NC coast by 12Z Sunday. A moist warm sector with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place in this region, but instability will remain very marginal with MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg due to poor lapse rates, widespread clouds and areas of showers. These showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the coastal SC through the central FL panhandle. This activity will increase in coverage and intensity toward evening as the southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across the eastern FL Panhandle into southeast GA. Low-level hodographs and effective bulk shear will become more than sufficient for organized storms. A strong wind gust or two and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat is expected to remain limited by the very marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Dial/Squiteiri.. 01/02/2021
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