SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z


A strong storm or two could still impact parts of southeast Georgia
late this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for severe weather.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Within a narrow plume of tropical moisture return, emanating from
near the Bay of Campeche, a convectively generated or enhanced
perturbation appears to be in the process of migrating inland off
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. One associated small but sustained
thunderstorm cluster is now progressing northeast of the Valdosta GA
area, within southwesterly deep-layer mean wind fields that are
still only modestly strong (around 40 kt, including around 30+ kt at
850 mb), but sheared.

This convection is currently rooted above rain-cooled air, but
latest objective guidance does indicate at least weak mixed-layer
CAPE developing along a zone of differential surface heating, from
near the southern flank of this convection northeastward across the
Waycross GA area.  It might not be out of the question that
increasing inflow of this air mass may contribute to new,
intensifying convection in closer proximity to the differential
heating zone, where the environment may be more conducive for
activity to organize and support some severe weather risk late this

Otherwise, severe weather potential appears generally negligible,
particularly as latest objective analyses indicate that the boundary
layer remains stable across coastal waters between Tampa and the
Florida Big Bend, and a considerable distance into the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

..Kerr.. 01/02/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021/

A moist and marginally unstable air mass remains in place today over
parts of FL/GA/Carolinas, along and east of a surface cold front. 
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will occur along the front
this afternoon and tonight.  The overall prospects of severe storms
are low today, due to considerable cloud cover and limited
instability. Nevertheless, there is some chance of a strong storm or
two to move ashore over the FL Panhandle this afternoon and track
into southern GA.  Gusty winds or a brief tornado are the main

Elsewhere across the nation, relatively dry and stable conditions
will preclude thunderstorms today.

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