SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two could still impact parts of southeast Georgia late this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Outlook Update... Within a narrow plume of tropical moisture return, emanating from near the Bay of Campeche, a convectively generated or enhanced perturbation appears to be in the process of migrating inland off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. One associated small but sustained thunderstorm cluster is now progressing northeast of the Valdosta GA area, within southwesterly deep-layer mean wind fields that are still only modestly strong (around 40 kt, including around 30+ kt at 850 mb), but sheared. This convection is currently rooted above rain-cooled air, but latest objective guidance does indicate at least weak mixed-layer CAPE developing along a zone of differential surface heating, from near the southern flank of this convection northeastward across the Waycross GA area. It might not be out of the question that increasing inflow of this air mass may contribute to new, intensifying convection in closer proximity to the differential heating zone, where the environment may be more conducive for activity to organize and support some severe weather risk late this afternoon. Otherwise, severe weather potential appears generally negligible, particularly as latest objective analyses indicate that the boundary layer remains stable across coastal waters between Tampa and the Florida Big Bend, and a considerable distance into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr.. 01/02/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021/ ...FL/GA... A moist and marginally unstable air mass remains in place today over parts of FL/GA/Carolinas, along and east of a surface cold front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will occur along the front this afternoon and tonight. The overall prospects of severe storms are low today, due to considerable cloud cover and limited instability. Nevertheless, there is some chance of a strong storm or two to move ashore over the FL Panhandle this afternoon and track into southern GA. Gusty winds or a brief tornado are the main threats. Elsewhere across the nation, relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms today.
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