Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough is likely to be situated over
the East, with shortwave ridging over the MS Valley occurring in
advance of an amplifying Plains upper trough. Due to a prominent
surface ridge over the eastern states, thunderstorms are unlikely.

As the Plains trough develops eastward toward the Arklatex and lower
MS Valley on Wednesday/D5, a deepening cut-off low is forecast to
form, with a cold front moving across east TX and becoming occluded
into AR and LA. Instability is forecast to be weak (at or below 200
J/kg) by the ECMWF across OK and TX, and even less as the narrow
moist sector shrinks with the occlusion. In addition, capping will
be a concern for thunderstorms in general.

Severe potential does not appear to get any better as the trough
continues eastward across the Southeast into Thursday/D6 and
Friday/D7, with minimal moisture return the primary limiter.

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