Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough is likely to be situated over the East, with shortwave ridging over the MS Valley occurring in advance of an amplifying Plains upper trough. Due to a prominent surface ridge over the eastern states, thunderstorms are unlikely. As the Plains trough develops eastward toward the Arklatex and lower MS Valley on Wednesday/D5, a deepening cut-off low is forecast to form, with a cold front moving across east TX and becoming occluded into AR and LA. Instability is forecast to be weak (at or below 200 J/kg) by the ECMWF across OK and TX, and even less as the narrow moist sector shrinks with the occlusion. In addition, capping will be a concern for thunderstorms in general. Severe potential does not appear to get any better as the trough continues eastward across the Southeast into Thursday/D6 and Friday/D7, with minimal moisture return the primary limiter.
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