SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two remains possible from southeast Georgia into
eastern South Carolina this evening.

...Southeast Georgia through eastern South Carolina...

A small cluster of convection has undergone some intensification and
a little better organization over southeast GA during the past hour,
with a few lightning flashes also indicated. Activity is developing
along a warm conveyor belt where a south southwesterly low-level jet
is shifting northeastward. Strong deep-layer winds accompanying a
mid-upper jet rotating through the  base of a northeast-ejecting
shortwave trough has overspread this region, contributing to 50+ kt
effective bulk shear. The southeast GA convection also appears to be
associated with a weak northeast-advancing upper-level perturbation.
A couple of bowing segments and weak updraft rotation has been
observed with this activity. Given a favorable kinematic environment
convection could pose some risk for mainly a couple of strong wind
gusts and a brief tornado as it continues through southeast GA and
eastern SC this evening. Overall threat will remain marginal due to
the very weak thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 01/03/2021

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