SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive, split-flow pattern will
predominate, with a southern stream diverted around two
perturbations:
1.  A leading cyclone -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery
over IN, forecast to move east-northeastward to New England and the
northern Mid-Atlantic region by 12Z tomorrow.
2.  A trailing shortwave trough -- initially located over the
central High Plains -- that should pivot east-southeastward across
the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley by 12Z.
Meanwhile, a strong northern-stream shortwave trough -- now over
parts of BC/WA -- will move across the northern Rockies and amplify,
reaching MB and the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period.

At the surface, a frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z near EWN, and
is expected to move northeastward and offshore by 16Z, while the
trailing cold front also moves east of the Outer Banks.  Convection
with isolated embedded thunder potential, associated with the low/
front over the Outer Banks vicinity, should move offshore during the
next few hours.  The cold front also will move southeastward down
the FL Peninsula, reaching southeastern FL and the Keys late
overnight into early morning.  Weak convergence and poor low/middle-
level lapse rates should preclude thunderstorms along the FL segment
of the front.

..Edwards.. 01/03/2021

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