SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, split-flow pattern will predominate, with a southern stream diverted around two perturbations: 1. A leading cyclone -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over IN, forecast to move east-northeastward to New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A trailing shortwave trough -- initially located over the central High Plains -- that should pivot east-southeastward across the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley by 12Z. Meanwhile, a strong northern-stream shortwave trough -- now over parts of BC/WA -- will move across the northern Rockies and amplify, reaching MB and the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. At the surface, a frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z near EWN, and is expected to move northeastward and offshore by 16Z, while the trailing cold front also moves east of the Outer Banks. Convection with isolated embedded thunder potential, associated with the low/ front over the Outer Banks vicinity, should move offshore during the next few hours. The cold front also will move southeastward down the FL Peninsula, reaching southeastern FL and the Keys late overnight into early morning. Weak convergence and poor low/middle- level lapse rates should preclude thunderstorms along the FL segment of the front. ..Edwards.. 01/03/2021
There’s more click here.