Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

A shortwave trough with closed low will be situated over the central
and southern Plains on Wednesday/D4 and will move across the lower
MS Valley on Thursday/D5. This system will continue east across the
remainder of the Southeast through Friday/D6, exiting the CONUS by
00Z Saturday/D7.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be situated over
eastern/coastal TX by 00Z Thursday/D5, and over southern MS by 12Z
Thursday. Ahead of this front, only meager low-level moisture return
is indicated, with minimal SBCAPE and a warm sector shrinking from
north to south due to occlusion. For the duration of this upper low
over land, it appears instability will be minimal, thus potential is
currently too low for any severe probabilities.

Another amplifying upper trough is shown by the models into the
southern Plains on Saturday/D7, then moving across the Deep South
and northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday/D8. However, given the
progressive pattern, there will be little opportunity for sufficient
moisture return and destabilization, thus potential remains low for
severe storms through Sunday/D8.

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