Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough with closed low will be situated over the central and southern Plains on Wednesday/D4 and will move across the lower MS Valley on Thursday/D5. This system will continue east across the remainder of the Southeast through Friday/D6, exiting the CONUS by 00Z Saturday/D7. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be situated over eastern/coastal TX by 00Z Thursday/D5, and over southern MS by 12Z Thursday. Ahead of this front, only meager low-level moisture return is indicated, with minimal SBCAPE and a warm sector shrinking from north to south due to occlusion. For the duration of this upper low over land, it appears instability will be minimal, thus potential is currently too low for any severe probabilities. Another amplifying upper trough is shown by the models into the southern Plains on Saturday/D7, then moving across the Deep South and northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday/D8. However, given the progressive pattern, there will be little opportunity for sufficient moisture return and destabilization, thus potential remains low for severe storms through Sunday/D8.
There’s more click here.