SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sun Jan 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
northern California and Pacific Northwest coastal areas as well as
the northern Sierra Nevada, mainly this afternoon.

A shortwave trough will move through northern California and the
Pacific Northwest region today accompanied by cold air aloft and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Weak destabilization is expected
especially near the coastal areas where diabatic heating and moist
onshore flow will occur, resulting in MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear will accompany the shortwave trough, but there
will be a tendency for winds in the near surface to 700 mb layer to
weaken as the atmosphere destabilizes near the upper trough axis.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in
this regime, especially during the afternoon, but the thermodynamic
environment is expected to remain too marginal for a severe threat.

..Dial.. 01/04/2021

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