SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sun Jan 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and Pacific Northwest coastal areas as well as the northern Sierra Nevada, mainly this afternoon. A shortwave trough will move through northern California and the Pacific Northwest region today accompanied by cold air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Weak destabilization is expected especially near the coastal areas where diabatic heating and moist onshore flow will occur, resulting in MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg. Strong vertical shear will accompany the shortwave trough, but there will be a tendency for winds in the near surface to 700 mb layer to weaken as the atmosphere destabilizes near the upper trough axis. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in this regime, especially during the afternoon, but the thermodynamic environment is expected to remain too marginal for a severe threat. ..Dial.. 01/04/2021
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