SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and night from eastern Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. A few stronger storms are possible over southeast Texas during the afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Wednesday, a positive-tilt upper trough will be situated over the central and southern Plains, and will move eastward toward the lower MS Valley by 12Z Thursday, providing large-scale lift. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will stretch from the OH Valley to the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move slowly eastward with time. A cold front will precede the southern Plains upper trough, with weak low pressure forming from eastern TX into LA and MS. Primarily mid 50s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected ahead of this front, with low 60s F along the TX and LA coasts leading to a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Farther inland, elevated instability is also expected to develop with MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg, mainly north of the cold front. The most favorable combination of SBCAPE and shear will develop over parts of southeast Texas during the afternoon. Here, winds will veer with height, with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH developing, which may support isolated severe storms. The cold front will be the primary forcing mechanism, and will likely undercut developing storms. Given this, and uncertainties regarding boundary-layer moisture quality, will maintain sub-severe probabilities. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2021
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