SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and/or a
tornado this afternoon over a small part of northern California.

...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the forecast for this issuance.

..Broyles.. 01/04/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021/

...CA...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Scattered
lightning flashes are noted off the coast of northern CA in a
post-frontal regime with cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse
rates.  This activity may move ashore this afternoon and evening,
with a few thunderstorms affecting parts of western WA/OR and
northern CA.  Orographically backed low-level winds in the
Sacramento Valley, coupled with strong southwesterly flow aloft and
marginal CAPE values, will pose a risk of one or two low-topped
supercells this afternoon.  It is unclear if the storms would be
sufficiently tall for charge separation.  However, if activity can
become sustained, there is the potential for gusty/damaging winds or
a brief tornado or two.  This threat should diminish around sunset.

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