Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Thursday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move from AR in the
morning toward the southern Appalachians by Friday/D5 morning, with
strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf states. Meanwhile, a
surface low will move from MS to SC, with an occluded front trailing
south from the low. Low-level moisture will be meager ahead of this
front, with the mid 50s F dewpoints forecast to remain largely
offshore. As such, severe weather is unlikely.

For Friday/D5 to Monday/D8, the shortwave trough over the Southeast
will quickly move offshore, with high pressure producing offshore
winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Another shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest on Friday/D5 toward the
southern Plains by Sunday/D7. Models differ as to how far south this
trough will dig, but in general, the northwest flow pattern aloft
combined with antecedent surface ridging suggest little/poor
low-level moisture return, and minimal severe threat.

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