Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move from AR in the morning toward the southern Appalachians by Friday/D5 morning, with strong westerly winds aloft across the Gulf states. Meanwhile, a surface low will move from MS to SC, with an occluded front trailing south from the low. Low-level moisture will be meager ahead of this front, with the mid 50s F dewpoints forecast to remain largely offshore. As such, severe weather is unlikely. For Friday/D5 to Monday/D8, the shortwave trough over the Southeast will quickly move offshore, with high pressure producing offshore winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest on Friday/D5 toward the southern Plains by Sunday/D7. Models differ as to how far south this trough will dig, but in general, the northwest flow pattern aloft combined with antecedent surface ridging suggest little/poor low-level moisture return, and minimal severe threat.
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