SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and night from eastern Texas into Louisiana. A few stronger storms are possible over southeast Texas during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A surface ridge will extend from the Great Lakes into the southeastern states as shortwave ridging occurs aloft. To the west, an amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains with a positive tilt, then will become negatively tilted late Wednesday night as it moves into the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to form over eastern TX during the day, with a cold front pushing through the remainder of east/south TX by 03Z. Ahead of the front, 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will exist, but moisture trajectories will remain poor due to dry air over the Southeast. The combination of lift with the upper trough, favorable shear and sufficient instability may result in isolated severe storms during the afternoon over southeast TX. Elsewhere, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a shortwave trough moves ashore by 00Z. Cold midlevel temperatures and existing moisture at 700 mb may support sporadic elevated convection with lightning flashes over western OR during the day. ...Southeast TX... Height falls will occur throughout the day as the shortwave trough approaches. The strongest cooling aloft will generally occur north of the Houston area, with the low 60s F dewpoints extending southwest along the TX Coast. Forecast soundings show several hundred J/kg of SBCAPE developing ahead of the cold front by late afternoon, and storms should increase in coverage along and perhaps just behind the cold front as it advances east. The most favorable combination of sufficient instability and stronger shear is forecast over southeast TX during the afternoon. Here, isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible, and perhaps a brief tornado if cells do not get undercut by the front. Instability will quickly wane during the evening as the front continues east, but elevated storms will remain possible overnight into LA and MS. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2021
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