SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and night
from eastern Texas into Louisiana. A few stronger storms are
possible over southeast Texas during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A surface ridge will extend from the Great Lakes into the
southeastern states as shortwave ridging occurs aloft. To the west,
an amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains with a
positive tilt, then will become negatively tilted late Wednesday
night as it moves into the lower MS Valley. 

At the surface, a weak low is forecast to form over eastern TX
during the day, with a cold front pushing through the remainder of
east/south TX by 03Z. Ahead of the front, 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints will exist, but moisture trajectories will remain poor due
to dry air over the Southeast. The combination of lift with the
upper trough, favorable shear and sufficient instability may result
in isolated severe storms during the afternoon over southeast TX.

Elsewhere, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a
shortwave trough moves ashore by 00Z. Cold midlevel temperatures and
existing moisture at 700 mb may support sporadic elevated convection
with lightning flashes over western OR during the day.

...Southeast TX...
Height falls will occur throughout the day as the shortwave trough
approaches. The strongest cooling aloft will generally occur north
of the Houston area, with the low 60s F dewpoints extending
southwest along the TX Coast. Forecast soundings show several
hundred J/kg of SBCAPE developing ahead of the cold front by late
afternoon, and storms should increase in coverage along and perhaps
just behind the cold front as it advances east.

The most favorable combination of sufficient instability and
stronger shear is forecast over southeast TX during the afternoon.
Here, isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible, and perhaps
a brief tornado if cells do not get undercut by the front.
Instability will quickly wane during the evening as the front
continues east, but elevated storms will remain possible overnight
into LA and MS.

..Jewell.. 01/05/2021

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