SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible Thursday from southeast Louisiana eastward into Georgia and northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, a shortwave trough with closed low centered over AR will move east across the southeastern States, and into GA by 12Z Friday. Strong westerly winds aloft will exist south of the upper low, with up to 80 kt winds at 500 mb within the jet core. Temperatures at 500 mb will be as cold as -20 C along the central Gulf Coast, steepening midlevel lapse rates. The presence of high pressure over the Southeast ahead of this upper trough will retard low-level moisture return, and also limit low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front over southern MS, AL and the FL Panhandle indicate that the most unstable parcels may remain elevated, with minimal SBCAPE. Given this cool boundary layer, severe storms appear unlikely. However, shear will conditionally be favorable for supercells and even tornadoes if better-than-expected moisture return occurs, and the low remains over land. In this case, isolated supercells could not be ruled out along the immediate MS/AL/FL Panhandle coasts. Will defer any potential risk areas to later updates when predictability increases. Elsewhere, elevated instability may develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest Thursday night as a powerful midlevel jet noses into northern CA, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to -30 C. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2021
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