SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible Thursday from southeast Louisiana
eastward into Georgia and northern Florida.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, a shortwave trough with closed low centered over AR
will move east across the southeastern States, and into GA by 12Z
Friday. Strong westerly winds aloft will exist south of the upper
low, with up to 80 kt winds at 500 mb within the jet core.
Temperatures at 500 mb will be as cold as -20 C along the central
Gulf Coast, steepening midlevel lapse rates.

The presence of high pressure over the Southeast ahead of this upper
trough will retard low-level moisture return, and also limit
low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front
over southern MS, AL and the FL Panhandle indicate that the most
unstable parcels may remain elevated, with minimal SBCAPE. Given
this cool boundary layer, severe storms appear unlikely. However,
shear will conditionally be favorable for supercells and even
tornadoes if better-than-expected moisture return occurs, and the
low remains over land. In this case, isolated supercells could not
be ruled out along the immediate MS/AL/FL Panhandle coasts. Will
defer any potential risk areas to later updates when predictability
increases.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may develop over parts of the
Pacific Northwest Thursday night as a powerful midlevel jet noses
into northern CA, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to -30 C.

..Jewell.. 01/05/2021

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