Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement for the Friday/D4 to Sunday/D6 period,
and show an upper trough exiting the Mid Atlantic Friday/D4. High
pressure will be in place from the Plains into the East behind this
wave, and in advance of the next upper trough. This second trough is
forecast to move from the Four Corners into the southern Plains
during the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 period, and indications are that
there will be no appreciable low-level moisture return over land. As
a result, thunderstorm chances appear minimal through Sunday/D6.

While model spread increases significantly beyond Sunday/D6, the
existing pattern does not appear to support severe thunderstorms
with the potential for several reinforcing surface highs and
fast-moving shortwave troughs.

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