SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm capable of damaging winds, hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. ...SE TX... Latest water vapor loop shows an intense shortwave trough digging into OK/TX. An 80+ knot mid level jet will rotate into the base of the trough this afternoon and nose eastward across southeast TX and the LA coast. This will result in increasing large scale forcing and destabilization over this region, and aid in the development of thunderstorms. Storms have already begun to form along/ahead of the advancing cold front over central TX. Southerly low level winds ahead of the front will help transport low/mid 60s dewpoints northward, leading to sufficient afternoon CAPE for a few strong/severe storms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. Cooling temperatures aloft will promote the risk of hail in the stronger cells. Near-ground shear is not expected to be particularly strong, and linear/bowing structures are shown in most 12z CAM solutions. Therefore, it appears damaging winds are the main threat but with some risk of a tornado or two. Storms should move off the TX coast after dark, but strong convection may occur along and just off the LA coast through the night and possibly spread inland again over southeast LA towards dawn. ..Hart.. 01/06/2021
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