SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND AREAS JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible Thursday across the Southeast, with very
low/conditional threat for a brief tornado mainly from the mouth of
the Mississippi eastward to just south of the Florida Panhandle
coast.

...Synopsis...
A complex/amplified flow field aloft is progged over the U.S. this
period, with the main feature of interest being an upper low that
will advance eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country
through the period.  Elsewhere, a second/substantial trough crossing
the eastern Pacific will near the Pacific Northwest Coast late.  

At the surface, a weak low will shift eastward from the central Gulf
Coast area during the day, and then across north Florida and into
the southeastern Atlantic overnight.  Meanwhile, a cold front --
trailing from a low that will remain offshore -- will reach the
Pacific Northwest Coast overnight.

...Far southeastern LA east along the Florida Panhandle Coast...
Strong low-level warm advection, atop a stable boundary layer, is
expected across the Southeast Thursday, as the upper cyclone and
attendant/weak surface low advance.  While favorably strong/veering
flow through the lower troposphere will precede the low, it appears
increasingly unlikely that any appreciable surface-based CAPE will
develop inland.  Thus, the MRGL risk area is being adjusted
southward, largely confined to areas just offshore, where a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Goss.. 01/06/2021

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