SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z


Thunderstorm capable of damaging winds, hail, and a couple tornadoes
are possible this afternoon and evening from southeastern Texas into
southern Louisiana.

The ongoing outlook areas/reasoning continue to represent current
expectations, with storms now ongoing over eastern Texas, a few of
which are severe at this time.

The main changes at this point will be to adjust areas on the
western fringe of the outlook, to represent convective progression
which has occurred since the prior outlook.  Expect severe risk to
continue this afternoon, and then diminish into the evening as a
combination of airmass stabilization, and given weaker instability
to the east of ongoing storms.

..Goss.. 01/06/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021/

...SE TX...
Latest water vapor loop shows an intense shortwave trough digging
into OK/TX.  An 80+ knot mid level jet will rotate into the base of
the trough this afternoon and nose eastward across southeast TX and
the LA coast.  This will result in increasing large scale forcing
and destabilization over this region, and aid in the development of

Storms have already begun to form along/ahead of the advancing cold
front over central TX.  Southerly low level winds ahead of the front
will help transport low/mid 60s dewpoints northward, leading to
sufficient afternoon CAPE for a few strong/severe storms.  Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer
shear.  Cooling temperatures aloft will promote the risk of hail in
the stronger cells.  Near-ground shear is not expected to be
particularly strong, and linear/bowing structures are shown in most
12z CAM solutions.  Therefore, it appears damaging winds are the
main threat but with some risk of a tornado or two.  Storms should
move off the TX coast after dark, but strong convection may occur
along and just off the LA coast through the night and possibly
spread inland again over southeast LA towards dawn.

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