Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of an upper trough departing the Mid Atlantic, another shortwave trough will dive southward across the Four Corners on Saturday/D4, and into TX on Sunday/D5. A large surface ridge will be in place during this period, with pressure centers over the Great Basin and Northern Plains. Given the low latitude of this shortwave trough, low pressure is forecast to form over the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday/D5. Low-level moisture return will be minimal over land due to poor trajectories around the surface ridge, but low 60s F dewpoints are possible near Brownsville TX before a cold front surges east. Only minimal elevated instability is forecast over southern TX. From Monday/D6 through Wednesday/D8, little thunderstorm activity is anticipated. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues across the Gulf of Mexico, another wave is forecast to move into the central Plains or Great Lakes, depending on the model. In either case, reinforcing surface highs are expected, minimizing potential for destabilization.
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