Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

In the wake of an upper trough departing the Mid Atlantic, another
shortwave trough will dive southward across the Four Corners on
Saturday/D4, and into TX on Sunday/D5. A large surface ridge will be
in place during this period, with pressure centers over the Great
Basin and Northern Plains. Given the low latitude of this shortwave
trough, low pressure is forecast to form over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday/D5. Low-level moisture return will be minimal over
land due to poor trajectories around the surface ridge, but low 60s
F dewpoints are possible near Brownsville TX before a cold front
surges east. Only minimal elevated instability is forecast over
southern TX.

From Monday/D6 through Wednesday/D8, little thunderstorm activity is
anticipated. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues across
the Gulf of Mexico, another wave is forecast to move into the
central Plains or Great Lakes, depending on the model. In either
case, reinforcing surface highs are expected, minimizing potential
for destabilization.

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