Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through most of the D4-D8 period, beginning with a shortwave trough over TX on Sunday/D4. This wave will proceed across the southeastern and Mid Atlantic through Tuesday/D6, with northwest flow developing over the Plains beyond Tuesday/D6. Further upper trough amplification is hinted at across the Plains toward Thursday/D8. Regardless of the precise timing of these waves, models agree the limiting factor will continue to be the lack of instability and low-level moisture over land. As the pattern remains progressive, there will be little time in between waves for sufficient destabilization. Thus, potential is likely to remain too low through the period.
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