Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern
through most of the D4-D8 period, beginning with a shortwave trough
over TX on Sunday/D4. This wave will proceed across the southeastern
and Mid Atlantic through Tuesday/D6, with northwest flow developing
over the Plains beyond Tuesday/D6. Further upper trough
amplification is hinted at across the Plains toward Thursday/D8.

Regardless of the precise timing of these waves, models agree the
limiting factor will continue to be the lack of instability and
low-level moisture over land. As the pattern remains progressive,
there will be little time in between waves for sufficient
destabilization. Thus, potential is likely to remain too low through
the period.

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