SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur late Saturday night over parts of central/south Texas, with isolated lightning flashes possible over coastal Oregon as well. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low is forecast to move southeastward across the Four Corners region on Saturday, eventually reaching the southern High Plains late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Strong lift preceding this feature will encourage precipitation to develop across parts of the southern Plains. However, very little low-level moisture return is expected to occur ahead of the upper trough/low owing to a prior frontal intrusion over the Gulf of Mexico. Still, some guidance suggests there may be just enough elevated MUCAPE (100-250 J/kg) in the presence of a southerly low-level jet to support isolated thunderstorms across parts of central/south TX, mainly after 09Z. Even though deep layer shear will strengthen across this region, the weak instability will greatly limit organized severe thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, cold temperatures aloft associated with an approaching upper trough may support very weak elevated instability and perhaps isolated lightning flashes across parts of coastal OR late Saturday night. ..Gleason.. 01/08/2021
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