SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur late Saturday night over parts of
central/south Texas, with isolated lightning flashes possible over
coastal Oregon as well. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low is forecast to move southeastward across the
Four Corners region on Saturday, eventually reaching the southern
High Plains late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Strong
lift preceding this feature will encourage precipitation to develop
across parts of the southern Plains. However, very little low-level
moisture return is expected to occur ahead of the upper trough/low
owing to a prior frontal intrusion over the Gulf of Mexico. Still,
some guidance suggests there may be just enough elevated MUCAPE
(100-250 J/kg) in the presence of a southerly low-level jet to
support isolated thunderstorms across parts of central/south TX,
mainly after 09Z. Even though deep layer shear will strengthen
across this region, the weak instability will greatly limit
organized severe thunderstorm potential.

Elsewhere, cold temperatures aloft associated with an approaching
upper trough may support very weak elevated instability and perhaps
isolated lightning flashes across parts of coastal OR late Saturday
night.

..Gleason.. 01/08/2021

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