SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight across parts of
central/south Texas.

No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/09/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021/

A midlevel shortwave trough near the Four Corners will continue
moving southeastward toward far West TX by Sunday morning. 
Low-midlevel moisture and buoyancy are quite limited across the
southern Rockies area with this trough.  Farther east, a relatively
cool/dry air mass persists across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
a prior frontal passage.  Much of the moisture return to TX will be
above the cool air mass at the surface, and forecast soundings
suggest some potential for weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb
overnight across central/south TX.  Thus, a few elevated
thunderstorms will be possible tonight in the zone of ascent/warm
advection in advance of the midlevel trough.

Otherwise, a shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight and gradually weaken while
moving into the mean ridge position.  The primary cold core will
pass to the north of this area, and the only weak buoyancy will be
rooted above the surface in the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt.  The
overall thunderstorm threat appears too marginal to justify an
outlook area.

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