SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight across parts of central/south Texas. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/09/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough near the Four Corners will continue moving southeastward toward far West TX by Sunday morning. Low-midlevel moisture and buoyancy are quite limited across the southern Rockies area with this trough. Farther east, a relatively cool/dry air mass persists across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a prior frontal passage. Much of the moisture return to TX will be above the cool air mass at the surface, and forecast soundings suggest some potential for weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb overnight across central/south TX. Thus, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible tonight in the zone of ascent/warm advection in advance of the midlevel trough. Otherwise, a shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight and gradually weaken while moving into the mean ridge position. The primary cold core will pass to the north of this area, and the only weak buoyancy will be rooted above the surface in the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt. The overall thunderstorm threat appears too marginal to justify an outlook area.
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