SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for lightning may accompany developing showers and increasing precipitation overnight across parts of central and southern Texas, particularly close to daybreak. ...01Z Outlook Update... Moistening of lower and mid-levels is underway across much of central and southern Texas, above a generally cool to cold and stable surface-based air mass. Based on latest observed and forecast soundings, this is occurring both above and below elevated mixed-layer air based around the 700 mb level. Moistening above this layer, likely coupled with lift supported by warm advection, already appears to be contributing to increasing high-based convection across south central Texas. This activity may continue to increase and spread northeastward toward the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coastal plain. However, it now appears that this weak convection may remain based well above the freezing layer, with minimal risk to produce lightning. Increasing probabilities for convection capable of producing lightning may await cooling aloft associated with the approach of a digging upstream short wave trough. With the mid-level cold core of this perturbation still digging into/across the higher terrain of central New Mexico (as of 0045Z), this may not occur until at least the 09-12Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2021
There’s more click here.