SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for lightning may accompany developing showers and
increasing precipitation overnight across parts of central and
southern Texas, particularly close to daybreak.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Moistening of lower and mid-levels is underway across much of
central and southern Texas, above a generally cool to cold and
stable surface-based air mass.  Based on latest observed and
forecast soundings, this is occurring both above and below elevated
mixed-layer air based around the 700 mb level.  Moistening above
this layer, likely coupled with lift supported by warm advection,
already appears to be contributing to increasing high-based
convection across south central Texas.  This activity may continue
to increase and spread northeastward toward the upper Texas and
southwest Louisiana coastal plain.  However, it now appears that
this weak convection may remain based well above the freezing layer,
with minimal risk to produce lightning.

Increasing probabilities for convection capable of producing
lightning may await cooling aloft associated with the approach of a
digging upstream short wave trough.  With the mid-level cold core of
this perturbation still digging into/across the higher terrain of
central New Mexico (as of 0045Z), this may not occur until at least
the 09-12Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 01/10/2021

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