SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorms are possible across parts of south central Texas,
and across parts of the Texas and Louisiana coastal plain today
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that much of North America will remain under the
influence of amplified branching flow, downstream of a strong zonal
jet across the mid-latitude Pacific.  This will continue to include
large-scale ridging across and inland of the Pacific coast, through
which a number of short wave perturbations emanating from the jet
will continue to progress.  Several already east of the ridge axis
are forecast to progress into an increasingly confluent regime
across and east of the Mississippi Valley.  The southernmost of
these, with an embedded mid-level low across the Permian Basin by
12Z this morning, is forecast to support a developing wave along a
frontal zone, from near the lower Texas coast (at the surface) to
near southeast Louisiana coastal areas by 12Z Monday.

...Southern Texas and northwestern Gulf coastal areas...
Models continue to indicate that Gulf moisture return above the
frontal zone will contribute to at least weak destabilization, and
eventually thermodynamic profiles conducive to convection capable of
producing lightning early today across parts of south central Texas.
 This is generally expected to coincide with the arrival of stronger
mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the
mid-level low, and may continue into this afternoon, spreading
across parts of the middle and upper Texas coastal plain. 
Gradually, it appears that lapse rates will stabilize as the
stronger forcing pivots northeastward, and the weak thunderstorm
activity should diminish.  The destabilizing warm sector over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico is then expected to become the focus for
new thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 01/10/2021

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