SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible across parts of south central Texas, and across parts of the Texas and Louisiana coastal plain today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that much of North America will remain under the influence of amplified branching flow, downstream of a strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific. This will continue to include large-scale ridging across and inland of the Pacific coast, through which a number of short wave perturbations emanating from the jet will continue to progress. Several already east of the ridge axis are forecast to progress into an increasingly confluent regime across and east of the Mississippi Valley. The southernmost of these, with an embedded mid-level low across the Permian Basin by 12Z this morning, is forecast to support a developing wave along a frontal zone, from near the lower Texas coast (at the surface) to near southeast Louisiana coastal areas by 12Z Monday. ...Southern Texas and northwestern Gulf coastal areas... Models continue to indicate that Gulf moisture return above the frontal zone will contribute to at least weak destabilization, and eventually thermodynamic profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning early today across parts of south central Texas. This is generally expected to coincide with the arrival of stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level low, and may continue into this afternoon, spreading across parts of the middle and upper Texas coastal plain. Gradually, it appears that lapse rates will stabilize as the stronger forcing pivots northeastward, and the weak thunderstorm activity should diminish. The destabilizing warm sector over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is then expected to become the focus for new thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2021
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