SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of coastal Texas and southern Louisiana. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/10/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021/ ...Synopsis... A southern stream shortwave trough over west central TX this morning will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early Monday. Surface cyclogenesis in association with the midlevel trough will be confined to the shelf waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, with the surface warm sector expected to remain largely offshore. Atop a cool near-surface air mass, warm advection and sufficient moisture/midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg and occasional elevated thunderstorms spreading eastward with time from south central TX.
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