Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, models are in agreement showing a de-amplifying shortwave trough moving quickly across the Southeast, where a dry air mass will remain at the surface. As such, very little elevated instability is expected to support thunderstorms. On Thursday/D5, a major trough amplification is forecast to occur as powerful northwest flow aloft dives southeastward into the Plains, resulting in a large-scale upper trough over the East with upper low over the Great Lakes. Given the antecedent dry air across the Gulf of Mexico, a brief window of southwest surface flow over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley is unlikely to be enough for any CAPE to develop. Beyond Thursday/D5, thunderstorm chances will remain nearly zero as a large surface ridge moves from the Plains across the Southeast and over the Gulf of Mexico. Additional trough amplifications are possible across the midsection of the country with a mean upper ridge over the West Coast, maintaining the dry surface pattern.
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