Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

On Wednesday/D4, models are in agreement showing a de-amplifying
shortwave trough moving quickly across the Southeast, where a dry
air mass will remain at the surface. As such, very little elevated
instability is expected to support thunderstorms.

On Thursday/D5, a major trough amplification is forecast to occur as
powerful northwest flow aloft dives southeastward into the Plains,
resulting in a large-scale upper trough over the East with upper low
over the Great Lakes. Given the antecedent dry air across the Gulf
of Mexico, a brief window of southwest surface flow over the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley is unlikely to be enough for any
CAPE to develop.

Beyond Thursday/D5, thunderstorm chances will remain nearly zero as
a large surface ridge moves from the Plains across the Southeast and
over the Gulf of Mexico. Additional trough amplifications are
possible across the midsection of the country with a mean upper
ridge over the West Coast, maintaining the dry surface pattern.

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