SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms could still develop across southeastern Louisiana coastal areas late tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Mid-level lapse rates have stabilized across much of southern and southeastern Texas, and drying associated with an increasing offshore component to the low-level flow is well underway, in the wake of a developing surface frontal low now over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The low may approach far southeastern Louisiana coastal areas late tonight, with at least some further moistening of the warm sector boundary layer possible. However, boundary-layer moistening within the warm sector to this point is rather modest, with surface dew points still only near or just above 60F. And destabilization across northwestern Gulf coastal areas will not be helped by warming mid-levels overnight, to the south of a cyclonic 500 mb jet streak forecast to redevelop inland across the upper Texas/Louisiana coastal plain, after emerging from the lower Rio Grande Valley. Given these considerations, probabilities for thunderstorms overnight appear generally low, but they may not be completely negligible across far southeastern Louisiana. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2021
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