SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms could still develop across southeastern
Louisiana coastal areas late tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Mid-level lapse rates have stabilized across much of southern and
southeastern Texas, and drying associated with an increasing
offshore component to the low-level flow is well underway, in the
wake of a developing surface frontal low now over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.  The low may approach far southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas late tonight, with at least some further moistening of
the warm sector boundary layer possible.  However, boundary-layer
moistening within the warm sector to this point is rather modest,
with surface dew points still only near or just above 60F.  And
destabilization across northwestern Gulf coastal areas will not be
helped by warming mid-levels overnight, to the south of a cyclonic
500 mb jet streak forecast to redevelop inland across the upper
Texas/Louisiana coastal plain, after emerging from the lower Rio
Grande Valley.  Given these considerations, probabilities for
thunderstorms overnight appear generally low, but they may not be
completely negligible across far southeastern Louisiana.

..Kerr.. 01/11/2021

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