SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A shortwave trough across west TX and north-central Mexico will
shift east towards LA through early Wednesday. Some guidance
indicates moistening between 700-600 mb ahead of this wave may be
sufficient to yield scant buoyancy atop a rather dry sub-cloud layer
to the surface. This highly elevated buoyancy may reside entirely
below freezing, rendering low probabilities for charge separation
given the relatively modest forcing for ascent. A stray lightning
flash is plausible overnight with isolated mid-level convection that
may not produce precipitation at the surface.

...Pacific Northwest...
Low-topped convection may accompany the next in a series of
shortwave troughs impinging on the WA coast late tonight. Steep
mid-level lapse rates are expected to be confined to just the
northwest WA coast late in the period. Buoyancy should remain too
poor to support an appreciable lightning risk beyond a flash or two.

..Grams.. 01/12/2021

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