SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough across west TX and north-central Mexico will shift east towards LA through early Wednesday. Some guidance indicates moistening between 700-600 mb ahead of this wave may be sufficient to yield scant buoyancy atop a rather dry sub-cloud layer to the surface. This highly elevated buoyancy may reside entirely below freezing, rendering low probabilities for charge separation given the relatively modest forcing for ascent. A stray lightning flash is plausible overnight with isolated mid-level convection that may not produce precipitation at the surface. ...Pacific Northwest... Low-topped convection may accompany the next in a series of shortwave troughs impinging on the WA coast late tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be confined to just the northwest WA coast late in the period. Buoyancy should remain too poor to support an appreciable lightning risk beyond a flash or two. ..Grams.. 01/12/2021
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