SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z


The risk for organized thunderstorms appears negligible through


The ongoing outlook remains unchanged. A couple of lightning flashes
remain possible the next few hours over parts of south-central TX. A
flash was most recently noted near Fayette County. Forecast RAP
soundings show a layer of very weak instability (MUCAPE less than
100 J/kg) between 600 mb and 400 mb, overlapping with temperatures
near to below -20 C. This is coincident with an area of deeper,
elevated convection noted in visible satellite imagery. While a
couple of flashes will remain possible, overall coverage and
longevity of this threat will preclude 10% General Thunderstorm

..Leitman.. 01/12/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/

Two areas of deep convection have developed this morning - one over
south TX and the other off the Lower TX Gulf Coast.  Both of these
areas of showers and very isolated thunderstorms are highly
elevated, with forecast soundings showing the unstable layer around
700mb and MUCAPE values near zero.  While isolated lightning flashes
may continue for another hour or so, it is likely that the coverage
of lightning after 1630z will be below 10%.

Elsewhere across the nation, relatively dry and stable conditions
will preclude organized thunderstorm activity.

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