SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight. ...Synopsis... The ongoing outlook remains unchanged. A couple of lightning flashes remain possible the next few hours over parts of south-central TX. A flash was most recently noted near Fayette County. Forecast RAP soundings show a layer of very weak instability (MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg) between 600 mb and 400 mb, overlapping with temperatures near to below -20 C. This is coincident with an area of deeper, elevated convection noted in visible satellite imagery. While a couple of flashes will remain possible, overall coverage and longevity of this threat will preclude 10% General Thunderstorm probs. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ ...TX... Two areas of deep convection have developed this morning - one over south TX and the other off the Lower TX Gulf Coast. Both of these areas of showers and very isolated thunderstorms are highly elevated, with forecast soundings showing the unstable layer around 700mb and MUCAPE values near zero. While isolated lightning flashes may continue for another hour or so, it is likely that the coverage of lightning after 1630z will be below 10%. Elsewhere across the nation, relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude organized thunderstorm activity.
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