SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z


A few weak thunderstorms are possible overnight across parts of
southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and adjacent
southwestern Alabama.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Latest model output suggests that a relatively compact mid-level low
will undergo some deepening while gradually accelerating toward the
lower Mississippi Valley overnight.  It appears that this will be
accompanied by a strengthening jet on its southeastern periphery,
including to 70-80 kt around 500 mb, across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico into Louisiana/Mississippi coastal areas by 12Z Wednesday.  

Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh have been similar to the NAM,
indicating an area of strengthening mid-level upward vertical motion
across south central Louisiana by 04-05Z (with the approach of the
mid-level jet streak), before spreading northeastward through
portions of southern Mississippi/adjacent southwestern Alabama
overnight.  Although this is well to the cool side of a stalled
frontal zone over the southern Gulf of Mexico, evening RAOBS
indicate the presence of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
across this region.  This is generally based around the 700 mb
level, where elevated moisture return is beginning to contribute to
weak CAPE at Lake Charles LA.  

As large-scale ascent increases later this evening, this instability
is expected to support increasing high-based convection.  Although
this will be mostly above the freezing level, the inflow layer may
be close enough to allow for the development of a mixed-phase layer,
and eventually charge separation and lightning within a possible
small developing convective cluster.

..Kerr.. 01/13/2021

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