SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...

The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made
with this update. See previous discussion below for forecast

..Leitman.. 01/13/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021/

...Southeast States...
A southern-stream upper low is moving across LA/MS today, with its
associated mid level speed max approaching the southeast states. 
Lift in the left-exit region of this jet will continue to result in
scattered showers across parts of MS/AL/GA this afternoon and
evening.  While an isolated lightning flash is possible, it is
likely to stay below the 10% criteria for a general thunderstorm

Later this evening, increasing large-scale ascent will shift
eastward into the Carolinas.  Forecast soundings suggest a slightly
deeper unstable layer, along with a deeper moist layer.  This may be
sufficient for a better chance of lightning flashes after dark over
parts of SC and southern NC.

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