SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made with this update. See previous discussion below for forecast details. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021/ ...Southeast States... A southern-stream upper low is moving across LA/MS today, with its associated mid level speed max approaching the southeast states. Lift in the left-exit region of this jet will continue to result in scattered showers across parts of MS/AL/GA this afternoon and evening. While an isolated lightning flash is possible, it is likely to stay below the 10% criteria for a general thunderstorm outlook. Later this evening, increasing large-scale ascent will shift eastward into the Carolinas. Forecast soundings suggest a slightly deeper unstable layer, along with a deeper moist layer. This may be sufficient for a better chance of lightning flashes after dark over parts of SC and southern NC.
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