Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is that a synoptic upper trough will move through
the eastern U.S. day 4 (Saturday) followed closely by an upstream
trough on day 5. This pattern will be accompanied by offshore winds
over the Gulf, maintaining stable conditions inland. A pattern
transition is forecast to occur by day 6 (Monday) as an upper trough
amplifies across the Great Basin region. Modifying Gulf moisture
should return through south TX, but instability will remain
insufficient for a severe threat. Moisture return should be more
substantial across south and southeast TX and possibly into southern
LA by day 7 with potential for greater destabilization. However, by
this time frame. predictability diminishes due to uncertainty
regarding the trajectory of the Great Basin upper trough.

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