Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Sunday) offshore flow over the Gulf will maintain stable
conditions inland. By day 5 (Monday), winds will return to southerly
over the western Gulf resulting in the advection of a modifying Gulf
boundary layer supporting dewpoints in the 50s F across south
through eastern TX. A few showers may develop in the pre-frontal
warm advection regime late Monday night from northeast TX into OK
but instability will remain too marginal for severe storms. An upper
low will settle into the southwest U.S. by day 6 (Tuesday) with
downstream weak upper ridging across TX in vicinity of a cold front
that will move slowly south. While showers and a few thunderstorms
may develop along the front and possibly farther south in the warm
sector across southeast TX, no severe weather is expected due to the
very weak thermodynamic environment. By day 7 the cutoff upper low
is forecast to settle into northern Mexico, but models remain
inconsistent regarding the timing and future trajectory of this
feature, resulting in low predictability.

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