Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Sunday) offshore flow over the Gulf will maintain stable conditions inland. By day 5 (Monday), winds will return to southerly over the western Gulf resulting in the advection of a modifying Gulf boundary layer supporting dewpoints in the 50s F across south through eastern TX. A few showers may develop in the pre-frontal warm advection regime late Monday night from northeast TX into OK but instability will remain too marginal for severe storms. An upper low will settle into the southwest U.S. by day 6 (Tuesday) with downstream weak upper ridging across TX in vicinity of a cold front that will move slowly south. While showers and a few thunderstorms may develop along the front and possibly farther south in the warm sector across southeast TX, no severe weather is expected due to the very weak thermodynamic environment. By day 7 the cutoff upper low is forecast to settle into northern Mexico, but models remain inconsistent regarding the timing and future trajectory of this feature, resulting in low predictability.
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