SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley
to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon.

...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau...
A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of
ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach
eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead
of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km
lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm
into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in
scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection
appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading
mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting
southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will
probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to
warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/15/2021

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