SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon. ...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau... A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/15/2021
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