Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4 (Monday), southerly winds will return to the western Gulf and south TX resulting in the northward advection of a modifying Gulf boundary layer through south and east TX. A few showers may develop along a southward-advancing cold front and in the pre-frontal warm advection regime late Monday night from OK into northeast TX, but very little instability will exist to support thunderstorms. Upper low is forecast to be situated over southern CA by day 5 (Tuesday) with downstream weak upper ridging across TX in vicinity of a cold front that will move slowly south. While showers and thunderstorms may develop along the front and possibly farther south in the warm sector across southeast TX, no severe weather is expected due to the anticipated very weak thermodynamic environment. By day 6 (Wednesday) model consensus is that the cutoff upper low will settle into the Baja area with a downstream upper ridge across the Southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms may persist in vicinity of the stalled and weakening front from central TX into the lower MS Valley, but the expected parameter space does not appear conducive for severe storms.
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