Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Monday), southerly winds will return to the western Gulf and
south TX resulting in the northward advection of a modifying Gulf
boundary layer through south and east TX. A few showers may develop
along a southward-advancing cold front and in the pre-frontal warm
advection regime late Monday night from OK into northeast TX, but
very little instability will exist to support thunderstorms. Upper
low is forecast to be situated over southern CA by day 5 (Tuesday)
with downstream weak upper ridging across TX in vicinity of a cold
front that will move slowly south. While showers and thunderstorms
may develop along the front and possibly farther south in the warm
sector across southeast TX, no severe weather is expected due to the
anticipated very weak thermodynamic environment. By day 6
(Wednesday) model consensus is that the cutoff upper low will settle
into the Baja area with a downstream upper ridge across the Southern
Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms may persist in vicinity of
the stalled and weakening front from central TX into the lower MS
Valley, but the expected parameter space does not appear conducive
for severe storms.

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