SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across the central Appalachians this afternoon. ...Central Appalachians... Late this evening, center of 500mb low has migrated to near the southern IL/IN border. This feature is forecast to shift into eastern OH by 18z along with -30 to -34F 500mb temperatures. By mid day, surface temperatures should warm into the mid 30s which will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy. A few thunderstorms developed ahead of the upper low over the OH Valley Friday afternoon and showers will once again develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts could penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, and while the flash rates should remain low, 10 percent thunder probabilities may be attained. Greatest risk will be between 17-21z. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/16/2021
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