SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may develop across the central Appalachians this
afternoon.

...Central Appalachians...

Late this evening, center of 500mb low has migrated to near the
southern IL/IN border. This feature is forecast to shift into
eastern OH by 18z along with -30 to -34F 500mb temperatures. By mid
day, surface temperatures should warm into the mid 30s which will
result in steep surface-3km lapse rates and weak surface-based
buoyancy. A few thunderstorms developed ahead of the upper low over
the OH Valley Friday afternoon and showers will once again develop
by mid day as the boundary layer warms. Forecast soundings suggest
the strongest updrafts could penetrate levels necessary for
lightning discharge, and while the flash rates should remain low, 10
percent thunder probabilities may be attained. Greatest risk will be
between 17-21z.

..Darrow/Moore.. 01/16/2021

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