SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z


Very isolated lightning flashes may persist across a portion of
coastal New England into this afternoon.

An amplified upper trough centered on the Upper OH Valley will shift
northeast into New England by tonight. Attendant mid-level cold core
should progress across the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic States later this afternoon. Abundant cloud coverage
and ongoing snow showers will slow boundary-layer heating within the
cold core region. This will likely limit SBCAPE to at or below 100
J/kg despite steep 0-3 km lapse rates sampled by 12Z ILN and BNA
soundings. While a couple lightning flashes are plausible midday
into the afternoon, the overall setup appears unlikely to warrant a
10 percent or greater probability of thunder.

Downstream, much stronger forcing for ascent within the warm
conveyor has supported sporadic lightning predominantly south of the
southern New England coast, but a few flashes have been detected in
eastern MA over the past 90 minutes. Scant elevated buoyancy within
the apex of the low-level moisture plume may be sufficient for very
isolated lightning flashes into early to mid afternoon. But this
risk should diminish over Downeast ME as the warm conveyor becomes
increasingly divorced from the warmer North Atlantic waters of the
Gulf Stream.

..Grams.. 01/16/2021

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