SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland the rest of today or tonight. ...Discussion... An expansive area of rain and snow will persist this afternoon along the warm conveyor belt and just ahead of a vorticity maximum lifting northward through Maine. However, instability appears too marginal to support thunderstorms. A few lightning flashes cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon with showers developing beneath the cold core of an upper low circulation from the central and southern Appalachians into the Middle Atlantic region. However, it still appears that coverage of any such activity will remain less than 10%. ..Dial.. 01/16/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021/ ...New England... Bands of semi-organized low-topped convection ongoing near Cape Cod at midday will transition north-northeastward toward coastal Maine through the afternoon. While the highest probability of thunderstorms will remain well offshore, marginally supportive thermodynamic profiles near the coast could support a few lightning flashes this afternoon. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... Although cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent, modest boundary- layer heating beneath the upper trough-related mid-level cold core (-30C to -35C at 500 mb) will yield steepening lapse rates. A few lightning flashes cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon, but the potential/coverage is expected to remain very low overall (less than 10 percent).
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