SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland the rest of
today or tonight.


An expansive area of rain and snow will persist this afternoon along
the warm conveyor belt and just ahead of a vorticity maximum lifting
northward through Maine. However, instability appears too marginal
to support thunderstorms. 

A few lightning flashes cannot be completely ruled out this
afternoon with showers developing beneath the cold core of an upper
low circulation from the central and southern Appalachians into the
Middle Atlantic region. However, it still appears that coverage of
any such activity will remain less than 10%.

..Dial.. 01/16/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021/

...New England...
Bands of semi-organized low-topped convection ongoing near Cape Cod
at midday will transition north-northeastward toward coastal Maine
through the afternoon. While the highest probability of
thunderstorms will remain well offshore, marginally supportive
thermodynamic profiles near the coast could support a few lightning
flashes this afternoon.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
Although cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent, modest boundary-
layer heating beneath the upper trough-related mid-level cold core
(-30C to -35C at 500 mb) will yield steepening lapse rates. A few
lightning flashes cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon, but
the potential/coverage is expected to remain very low overall (less
than 10 percent).

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