Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to be in place form the southern Plains eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be dominate across much of the continental United States on Tuesday. The associated surface high is forecast to move across the Southeast on Wednesday. This will keep a dry airmass in place over much of the nation limiting thunderstorm development through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The medium-range models are forecasting an upper-level trough to move from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains from Thursday into Friday. Moisture return is expected to take place ahead of the system in parts of the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday night into Friday along northern parts of the moist airmass, most likely from central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. However, instability is expected to remain very weak which should limit any severe potential. On Saturday, model forecasts develop a low-amplitude upper-level ridge across the central U.S. At this time, instability is expected to be minimal across most of the nation helping to limit thunderstorm development.
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