Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to be in place form the southern
Plains eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday and Wednesday. At
the surface, high pressure is forecast to be dominate across much of
the continental United States on Tuesday. The associated surface
high is forecast to move across the Southeast on Wednesday. This
will keep a dry airmass in place over much of the nation limiting
thunderstorm development through mid week.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
The medium-range models are forecasting an upper-level trough to
move from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains from Thursday
into Friday. Moisture return is expected to take place ahead of the
system in parts of the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development
will be possible from Thursday night into Friday along northern
parts of the moist airmass, most likely from central Texas eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley. However, instability is expected
to remain very weak which should limit any severe potential. On
Saturday, model forecasts develop a low-amplitude upper-level ridge
across the central U.S. At this time, instability is expected to be
minimal across most of the nation helping to limit thunderstorm
development.

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