SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... The synoptic pattern will undergo transition as an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. Monday, and by 12Z Tuesday this feature will cut off over the Great Basin. Farther downstream across the eastern states, quasi-zonal flow will become established in the wake of a shortwave trough that will move off the Atlantic Seaboard during the afternoon. At the surface a cold front initially situated across the central Plains 12Z Monday will advance southeast. By the end of the period this front will extend from the Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley and northeast through southwest TX. Partially modified Gulf moisture will with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will return through south and central TX Monday evening and overnight supported by a strengthening southerly low level jet. Very weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential for substantial destabilization. Nevertheless, a shallow unstable layer will evolve with equilibrium levels near or below 10000 ft. Scattered showers will likely develop along the cold front and within the evolving warm advection regime farther south across TX. The depth of the convective layer will remain well below the threshold needed for thunderstorms. ..Dial.. 01/17/2021
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