SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States
Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...

The synoptic pattern will undergo transition as an upper trough
amplifies over the western U.S. Monday, and by 12Z Tuesday this
feature will cut off over the Great Basin. Farther downstream across
the eastern states, quasi-zonal flow will become established in the
wake of a shortwave trough that will move off the Atlantic Seaboard
during the afternoon. At the surface a cold front initially situated
across the central Plains 12Z Monday will advance southeast. By the
end of the period this front will extend from the Great Lakes into
the lower MS Valley and northeast through southwest TX. 

Partially modified Gulf moisture will with dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s will return through south and central TX Monday evening and
overnight supported by a strengthening southerly low level jet. Very
weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential for substantial
destabilization. Nevertheless, a shallow unstable layer will evolve
with equilibrium levels near or below 10000 ft. Scattered showers
will likely develop along the cold front and within the evolving
warm advection regime farther south across TX. The depth of the
convective layer will remain well below the threshold needed for
thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 01/17/2021

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