Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... The medium range models maintain west-northwesterly mid-level flow across much of the U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level low remains south of the southern California coast. The low is forecast to weaken and move northeastward across the Desert Southwest on Thursday. Ahead of this system, an upper-level ridge is forecast to be in place across the southern Plains with a moist airmass located across the western Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from the Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward into the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is expected to be very weak limiting any severe potential. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast dampen and move quickly east-northeastward across the southern U.S. on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast region. Instability is expected to be weak on Friday minimizing any severe potential. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase in parts of Texas from Saturday into Sunday, where the models suggest scattered thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest potential for an isolated severe threat Saturday and Sunday would be from central Texas northeastward into the Arklatex. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.
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