Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
The medium range models maintain west-northwesterly mid-level flow
across much of the U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level low remains
south of the southern California coast. The low is forecast to
weaken and move northeastward across the Desert Southwest on
Thursday. Ahead of this system, an upper-level ridge is forecast to
be in place across the southern Plains with a moist airmass located
across the western Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorm development will
be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass on
Wednesday and Thursday, mainly from the Texas Hill Country and Texas
Coastal Plain east-northeastward into the Arklatex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Instability is expected to be very weak limiting
any severe potential.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast dampen and move quickly
east-northeastward across the southern U.S. on Friday. Thunderstorm
development will be possible ahead of the trough from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast region.
Instability is expected to be weak on Friday minimizing any severe
potential. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase in
parts of Texas from Saturday into Sunday, where the models suggest
scattered thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest potential for
an isolated severe threat Saturday and Sunday would be from central
Texas northeastward into the Arklatex. However, uncertainty is
substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.

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