SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... In the wake of an eastward-moving upper trough, quasi-zonal flow should prevail over much of the central/eastern CONUS today. Across the western states, another upper trough will amplify through the period, eventually closing off over the Great Basin late tonight. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley through the day, with its trailing portion likely reaching parts of east/central TX by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return is forecast to occur across this region to the south of the cold front as a south-southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens. Forecast soundings along/near the front show very weak mid-level lapse rates, which should generally limit the potential for destabilization in the 0 to -20 C layer. Although showers may develop across parts of central/east TX late tonight into early Tuesday morning within the low-level warm advection regime, the potential for thunderstorms currently appears to be less than 10%. ..Gleason/Moore.. 01/18/2021
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