SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States
today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
In the wake of an eastward-moving upper trough, quasi-zonal flow
should prevail over much of the central/eastern CONUS today. Across
the western states, another upper trough will amplify through the
period, eventually closing off over the Great Basin late tonight. At
the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the
central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley through the day, with its
trailing portion likely reaching parts of east/central TX by the end
of the period. Modest low-level moisture return is forecast to occur
across this region to the south of the cold front as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens. Forecast
soundings along/near the front show very weak mid-level lapse rates,
which should generally limit the potential for destabilization in
the 0 to -20 C layer. Although showers may develop across parts of
central/east TX late tonight into early Tuesday morning within the
low-level warm advection regime, the potential for thunderstorms
currently appears to be less than 10%.

..Gleason/Moore.. 01/18/2021

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