SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible during the early morning Tuesday across a portion of central to east Texas. ...Central to east TX... Persistent low-level warm theta-e advection centered around 850 mb ahead of a cold front that will advance southeast across the southern Great Plains should result in at least isolated showers developing overnight into Tuesday morning. Guidance generally suggests meager elevated buoyancy will become prevalent after 06Z. However, zonal mid-level flow and lack of stronger ascent aloft suggest a relatively warm/dry profile atop the elevated buoyancy layer may mitigate appreciable deepening of the showers. Nevertheless, towards the pre-dawn hours, the potential for charge separation is not entirely negligible. Have added a thunderstorm area with probabilities appearing to be between 10-20 percent. ..Grams.. 01/18/2021
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