SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible during the early
morning Tuesday across a portion of central to east Texas.

...Central to east TX...
Persistent low-level warm theta-e advection centered around 850 mb
ahead of a cold front that will advance southeast across the
southern Great Plains should result in at least isolated showers
developing overnight into Tuesday morning. Guidance generally
suggests meager elevated buoyancy will become prevalent after 06Z.
However, zonal mid-level flow and lack of stronger ascent aloft
suggest a relatively warm/dry profile atop the elevated buoyancy
layer may mitigate appreciable deepening of the showers.
Nevertheless, towards the pre-dawn hours, the potential for charge
separation is not entirely negligible. Have added a thunderstorm
area with probabilities appearing to be between 10-20 percent.

..Grams.. 01/18/2021

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