SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across a portion of south Texas as well as near the coast of southern California. ...South Texas... Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will gradually build across TX Tuesday. A weak vorticity maximum may move through the upper ridge during the evening. A cold front initially from the lower MS Valley through south central and southwest TX will advance slowly south. Partially modified Gulf air with dewpoints generally in the low 60s F will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector. Scattered showers are expected to develop, primarily in the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate presence of a capping inversion near 700 mb which will serve as a limiting factor for deeper convection, especially given weak forcing aloft and tendency for the ridge to build. Nevertheless a few deeper updrafts with potential for isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, especially during the evening. ...Southern California Coast... An upper low will move southward from NV and southern CA early Tuesday to off the southern CA coast during the evening. Cool temperatures aloft promoting 7-7.5 mid-level lapse rates and vorticity maxima rotating through the upper low circulation will promote the development of mid-level convection. Some of these updrafts might become deep enough for a few lightning flashes near the coast, but most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore. ..Dial.. 01/18/2021
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